Economic Intelligence Brief No. 9
The First Two Weeks
How a campaign's first 14 days predict its final raise.
0.88–0.92 — out-of-sample AUC, 2022–2025
Summary
A company's early funding velocity predicts how its whole raise ends — validated out-of-sample across thousands of campaigns.
Key findings
- Fastest-quartile campaigns finish strong 96% of the time vs ~12% for the slowest.
- Out-of-sample AUC of 0.88–0.92 across 2022–2025.
- Built on 6,328 offerings since 2021, segmented for equity and debt.
- Predicts the raise, not investment return.
Frequently asked questions
How well do the first 14 days predict the final raise?
Out-of-sample AUC of 0.88–0.92 across 2022–2025. Fastest-quartile campaigns finish strong 96% of the time vs ~12% for the slowest.
Does this predict investment returns?
No. The model predicts the raise outcome, not investment return.
Audience
Quant · venture · data science
About this brief
Published by CCLEAR.ai. Anchored to public SEC EDGAR filings and hand-verified against a locked data snapshot. CCLEAR is a data publisher, not an investment adviser; figures describe market activity, not investment outcomes or advice.
The First Two Weeks · CCLEAR Research Library · License the data · Commission research
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