Economic Intelligence Brief No. 9

The First Two Weeks

How a campaign's first 14 days predict its final raise.

0.88–0.92 — out-of-sample AUC, 2022–2025

Summary

A company's early funding velocity predicts how its whole raise ends — validated out-of-sample across thousands of campaigns.

Key findings

• Fastest-quartile campaigns finish strong 96% of the time vs ~12% for the slowest.
• Out-of-sample AUC of 0.88–0.92 across 2022–2025.
• Built on 6,328 offerings since 2021, segmented for equity and debt.
• Predicts the raise, not investment return.

Frequently asked questions

How well do the first 14 days predict the final raise?

Out-of-sample AUC of 0.88–0.92 across 2022–2025. Fastest-quartile campaigns finish strong 96% of the time vs ~12% for the slowest.

Does this predict investment returns?

No. The model predicts the raise outcome, not investment return.

Audience

Quant · venture · data science

About this brief

Published by CCLEAR.ai. Anchored to public SEC EDGAR filings and hand-verified against a locked data snapshot. CCLEAR is a data publisher, not an investment adviser; figures describe market activity, not investment outcomes or advice.

The First Two Weeks · CCLEAR Research Library · License the data · Commission research

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